2024 Rachel Carson Distinguished Lecture by Drew Shindell

Drew Shindel delivered lecture "Uncovering the Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Health and the Economy" as one of the 2024 Rachel Carson Distinguished Anniversary Lecture Series on April 4.

Abstract: Rapid decarbonization of the global economy alongside reductions in emissions of non-CO2 climate drivers is required to keep global warming below 2°C. However, current progress is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets. To provide data to support enhanced action, we have examined how sustainable development could benefit human health. We find that millions of premature deaths related to fine particulate matter and heat exposure would be avoided under low-emission scenarios. The value of these health benefits alone is larger than the estimated mitigation costs in China and the US, and would offset much of the costs in South Asia as well. However, benefits from avoided climate change due to decarbonization occur largely in the latter half of this century. This highlights the imperative for complementary action to reduce methane – the strongest leverage we have over near-term climate change. Ongoing analyses also attempt to provide support for optimizing methane mitigation strategies.

Drew Shindell is Nicholas Professor of Earth Science at Duke University following two decades at NASA. His group studies the impacts on human health, agricultural yields, climate and the economy of policies to mitigate climate change or improve air quality. He is an author on >300 peer-reviewed publications, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a fellow of American Geophysical Union (AGU) and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). He has testified before both houses of Congress (at the request of both parties) and made numerous media appearances. He was a Coordinating Lead Author of the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and of the 2018 IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, and chaired the 2021 Global Methane Assessment from UNEP & the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC). He chairs the Scientific Advisory Panel to the CCAC and serves on the Science Advisory Board of the US EPA.