Dr. Daniel Eisenberg - IEEE Task Force on Power System Resilience Metrics and Evaluation Methods

Abstract: The rebound curve remains the most prevalent model for conceptualizing, measuring, and explaining resilience for engineered systems by tracking the functional robustness and recovery of systems over time. (It also goes by many names, including the resilience curve, the resilience triangle, and the system functionality curve, among others.) Despite longstanding recognition that resilience is more than rebound, the curve remains highly used, cited, and taught. In this presentation, I challenge the efficacy of this model for resilience and identify fundamental shortcomings in how it handles system function, time, dynamics, and decisions – the key elements that make up the curve. These oversimplifications reinforce misconceptions about resilience that are unhelpful for understanding complex systems like power grids and are potentially dangerous for guiding decisions. Instead, I present a simple framework that positions rebound alongside three other resilience concepts that are equally important and generate distinct metrics – robustness, extensibility, and adaptability. This new perspective changes the goals of resilience analysis from ensuring functional rebound towards managing fundamental tradeoffs between each perspective.

Bio: Daniel Eisenberg is an Assistant Professor of Operations Research at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and Director of the NPS Center for Infrastructure Defense. Dan’s teaching and research focuses on the design, operation, and adaptation of resilient infrastructure systems with emphasis on applying resilience engineering theory to improve system design and emergency operations. He uses tools from operations research, engineering, and public administration to link built and social systems together and identify fragilities in existing practices. He currently leads projects on the design and management of resilient island and military installation infrastructure and mapping the interorganizational networks surrounding emerging technologies.